The best-laid plans of mice and men oft go astray."

The best-laid plans of mice and men oft go astray."

-proverb

“Der mentsh trakht un got lakht” is an old Yiddish adage that translates to Man plans and God laughs.

I mention these because it’s been a week since I posted.  I want this blog to be a frequent bts look at life as a writer and producer and consistency is a key part of that. Unfortunately, the universe had other ideas.

On Sunday I went down hard with a 24-hour bug. It wasn’t that I felt so terrible (tho I didn’t feel great), but I was very tired.  Ask anyone who knows me and I am rarely tired and don’t need quite as much sleep as most.

But sleep is what I did, most of Sunday and half of Monday, MLK Day.

By the afternoon I started to feel better tho by then my stomach was a little topsy turvy. I did what work I could editing one chapter in “The Double” (Eddie Ankin Book One). Then, editing a couple of videos for YouTube and social media that I had previously shot.  I got those posted and called it a day.

Unfortunately, that night my middle daughter caught what I had and woke up sick on Tuesday. So, what I planned  to be a full day spent working while watching my son, was also spent caring for my under-the-weather little girl.  To paraphrase Maxamillian Schell from The Freshman, “Carmine said one….but there are two.”

At least I avoided the Komodo dragon.

By this morning the middle child was on the road to wellville, but not surprisingly my eldest and my youngest were now sick with the same cold.

So, rather than much writing, editing, or filming, I’ve been hopping to and fro taking care of the whole family today.

Which…while thankless at times…is the greatest job in the world (hard and exhausting…but great)

On the writing front, I am revising a few chapters of “The Double” leading up to the final showdown to be sure the story flows and the tension is ratcheted up before the climax. So I worked on that in fits and starts throughout the day.

Late last night,  I spent a couple of hours revising the outline for a horror film I am writing on spec. Then I watched The Last of Us and went to bed

The Last of Us pilot episode is really really good.

I wrote a script a couple of years ago for a producer at Netflix called HIDE BEHINDS based on a camp ghost story I heard while a camper at Camp Winaukee (yes, Winaukee like the ship gunner who gave Christopher Walken the watch in Pulp Fiction which Walken wore up his ass all those years before giving it to young Butch (Bruce Willis). Or maybe the camp was named after an American Indian tribe. One or the other. But I digress…)

Nothing came of that script but I also never shopped it anywhere else because I was busy at the time with other projects. But, I figure that HIDE BEHINDS, along with this new script, will hopefully be a double barrel blast of terror when sent to Hollywood producers, directors, and actors.

As for today, the only real thing I’ve gotten to is this blog post which I started writing about 28 minutes ago when all three children blessedly fell asleep for much needed naps.

Going forward, I plan to bring a production mindset to all my work and responsibilities. Rather than trying to multitask writing, filming, editing, or marketing, never mind advertising, developing, producing, plus family time, I am going to dedicate each day fully to one thing (okay two things because apparently it is illegal in some states to neglect your children…What’s that? It’s illegal in all states?  Good to know.)

Next week, I am shifting to a full-on batch mentality:

-Writing days.

-Production days (shoot and edit).

-Marketing days

In television production when you shoot more than one episode at a time (to save time, money, or for logistics) it’s called double-boarding episodes. 

The schedule is broken down by scenes that can be shot at the same time, even if they may appear in different episodes. 

Often, a single director will double-board episodes so that there isn’t the same time spent transitioning between episodic directors.

In Game of Thrones for instance a director who shot the big battle sequence that spans two or three episodes may not be the credited director on all three. However, they (along with second-unit directors) did shoot scenes that appeared in other episodes.

Batching is kinda the online video equivalent and has become something of a mentality in the “rise-and-grind” world we all supposedly live in. Personally, the only rising and grinding I do is for coffee.

With that said, I hope all of you are healthy and remain so throughout 2023 (with wealthy and wise soon to follow). More to come this week.

Kicking off 2023 BTS style

Starting the year off with a behind-the-scenes look at my day

Happy 2023!

The new year is well underway and it’s time to get going telling some good stories. The ones we love to read or watch in our favorite movies books and shows. Or for some of us, it’s the stories we dream up and commit to the page or the screen. And for all of us as each day we write the story of our lives.

I’ve always found inspiration reading the stories of other people going about the business of their everyday lives while at the same time attempting to climb their professional “mountains”, whether as a writer, a filmmaker, an athlete, an entrepreneur, whatever!

PROCESS.

I am interested in process. How people accomplish the things they do in life amid all the distractions all of us have to deal with in our lives.

I am currently finishing up final revisions for my next novel, The Double, which is the first in a crime thriller series.

At the same time, I am beginning to write book two. An outline exists for book 2 but requires some revisions before plunging into the writing of the novel Itself.

I still work as a Hollywood writer-producer, though now my home base is New York. This is an invigorating way to start the year since I am originally from New York but I have been living in Los Angeles for 20 years. But this summer, my wife, our three kids, and our tiny dog departed LA to ‘head east young man’ (okay, middle-aged man). Here’s to beginning a new chapter.

Given that, I thought it might interesting to record the chaos of my everyday as I work on the next couple of novels as well as try to get my next tv show or movie made. All with a WGA writers strike looming in May.

All of which should make a weekly newsletter blog from that point of view at least mildly interesting.

Doing this in blog form serves a few functions.

Writing warm up:

When Steinbeck wrote the grapes of wrath he began each day by writing briefly in his journal about the day’s work — and its inevitable distractions — before beginning the composition of the day.

Next, the blog/newsletter will be a consistent record of my efforts in the publishing game as well as in Hollywood, offering a behind-the-scenes look at the journey over the course of this year as I attempt to write more books, and produce shows and movies in Hollywood.

Lastly, it is a chance to connect with all of you out there who also love a good story, and who appreciate this kind of candid look at what goes into writing a book or creating a tv show or producing a movie.

Hopefully, this will prove interesting to those who enjoy this kind of stuff.

Share Jeremy’s Newsletter

So here goes…

6:47a woke up. Did some stretches. Have been feeling very tight from sitting for long stretches in my desk chair doing revisions.

7:15a Made breakfast for the kids. Prepared school lunches for my two daughters while my son, the youngest of the troika, doesn’t pack a lunch to school. He only goes for half a day.

8:45: wife took last kid to school. I clean up after breakfast.

Then I go and say my morning prayers.

9:15: Review the day’s work. Emails.

9:45: Revisions on The Double, which is the first novel in The Eddie Ankin series about a former Marine, Hollywood stuntman turned crime solver. The book needs to be finished this week to goto an editor in January.

10:45: switch the Book 2 which I’ve just begun. Crank out 2100 words in 90 minutes. This is the quietest the house has been since my son was born and the pandemic hit. Today at least, that quiet and concentrations seems to have given me a productive start to the day.

12:30: lunch.call with author friend whose books I am trying to get produced as either a feature or a series.

1:35: My wife comes home with my son around 1pm. I make lunch for everyone.

1:45: write script for some social media posts I am filming tomorrow.

2:35: meet my sister and walk together to our kids’ school

3pm: pick up my daughters and my niece and walk home.

3:30pm: review reports on previous AMS (amazon) and Facebook ads for the relaunch of my first novel “The Strange Crimes of Beatrice Clover.” I schedule a promotion for the ebook for the end of January. The paperback edition was just published so I am going to run some ads to make the people who still love a physical copy of a book (like me) aware they can now pick up a copy. I am trying to glean some insight into the best keywords to convert sales so I can better target the ads for the paperback which begin running later this week.

While I reviewed that, my wife and I helped our eldest daughter with her homework. It was a little frustrating which I chalk up to the post-holiday blues, and getting back to the normal school routine.

Hey kid, I remember that feeling well.

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415p: begin cooking dinner. We are trying to get our children to all eat the same meal so as to avoid the confusion my kids seem to have about the fact they do not live in a restaurant.

5:30p: dinner. Burritos. Mac n cheese for the kids. Plus chicken for my eldest. And chicken nuggets for my middle and youngest. So much for our attempt to get them to eat the same meal. But the battle rages on and we love to fight another day!

6-8p: family time and get ready for bed.

I glance at some emails. Start to plan tomorrow.

8:30p kids to bed. I fall asleep on the couch.

8:45pm: My middle child wakes me and wants help falling asleep. So I go to her room and run her back until she falls asleep. I nod off again for another 45 minutes.

9:30p: upstairs with my wife who is watching a show for work (she is a tv publicist). We discuss the show while I finish writing some of the social media scripts from earlier that I plan to film tomorrow.

11p: read for a bit. Can’t sleep. Open this post and write these last few entries to my day before I drift off to sleep around midnight.

More to come tomorrow…

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2023 Best Picture Winner

I’m not one to make predictions, especially about movies, but I’m calling it now:

Next year’s Top Gun will be…

COCAINE BEAR.

(Aka The Revenant ain’t shit)

Oscar. Best Picture.

You heard it here first.

Media money: Elon completes acquisition of Twitter. Fires ceo. World rejoices

The Tesla CEO and new “Chief twit” immediately fired the abysmal failures that were twitters CEO parag agarwal, cfo Ned segal whose sole accomplishment in that role was to lose investor’s money. And lastly Elon said goodbye to Orwellian policy head vijaya gadde who proved the last two years that she shouldn’t be smokier in any high ranking capacity at any sizable company because she is a barely functioning human being.

Let them learn to code

Normally i take no glee in people being fired. However, these clowns have lied and cheated for political favor and censored those who didn’t share their (reprehensible) views. They hijacked a platform meant for open and free discourse and turned it into a repository for every stupid woke cry baby the world over. They took a good thing and made it crap.

And now, long overdue, they are history.

Hopefully this is the last we see or hear of these three.

Media Money: Is Elon Musk pulling a "Bobby Axelrod" on Twitter?

Elon Musk is often compared to Tony Stark and is said to be the real life Iron Man. But today he reminds me of a another fictional billionaire: Bobby “Axe” Axelrod of the Showtime series, “BILLIONS.”

One of my favorite episodes of Billions back in season 1 involves Bobby Axelrod buying YumTime, a Drakes/Hostess-style company that makes sugary desert treats. Axelrod buys up the stock, seeks a board seat, is rejected, then launches a takeover bid, claiming all the while that he is doing so because he can remember when he was a kid eating the YumTime deserts and loving them, before the company lost its way. In the pursuit of profits, YumTime replaced the quality ingredients that made its deserts so good, with artificial crap. Axelrod wants to company to go back to its old recipes. This leads to a showdown with the CEO, the inept grandson of the founder. In the end, Axelrod using clever backroom moves with the board gains control of the company and ousts the CEO. In the end of the episode it is revealed that Axelrod’s real motives were to strike a blow at an enemy.

is Elon Musk pulling a Bobby Axelrod on Twitter?

To wit. There is a pretty clever theory about why Elon Musk really bought Twitter going around the internet.

It is from Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1545387947578597376

His theory is that the real reason Musk wanted to buy Twitter was to free up $8.5 billion dollars of Tesla stock by selling his shares WITHOUT appearing to lose faith in his company. The logic goes something like this:

Elon had made some noise months back about wanting to free up cash. To do that it means he’d have to sell stock in Tesla. The problem is that is seen as a bad sign when its done by the company CEO; people think it signals trouble a head or some other loss of confidence in the company’s future prospects. The problem then is that this usually tanks the share price (which means you have to sell even more to get the money you need, which now fundamentally costs more). This happened to Jeff Bezos a whule back, and he had to explain himself to his investors reassuring them that indeed Amazon was strong,

So, what if Musk orhestrated this move so he could sell his Tesla stock without anyone noticing, because we are all wrapped up in the drama of his twitter deal?

To quote Wolf’s twitter feed:

“80% odds Elon pays $1B breakup fee + walks away with $7.5B liquidated 20%

spends $100M fighting litigation

honestly think he can “land rockets” but can’t fix ‘bots’?”

Look, I like the idea of Elon buying Twitter and trying to fix the company’s fundamentals to both improve its user exerience and unlock value. It seeems to me (and Musk according to his own repeated tweets), that Twitter violated its user contract by turning what was supposed to be the “digital town square” for the open exchange of ideas, news, and opinion, into a cesspool of stupidity, progressive identity politics, and censorship, the third factor used to hide the first, while aiding in the advancement of the second.

In other words, the company’s core mission has been corrupted and distorted.

If that isn’t enough of a reason, how about the financials? Twitter is trading at 120x earnings valuation in the stock market. That’s compared to an industry average of 20-25x earnings. Compared to industry competitors that is wildly inflated, which means it was either the company would eventually crash, or better management would fix what was wrong.

Regardless, when the sale was announced, everyone had something to shout about. Now, a few months later, Elon pull out of the deal, and what happens? TWITTER SUES HIM TO FORCE HIM GO FORWARD WITH HIS PURCHASE AS PLANNED.

So, Musk may may be playing a winning hand no matter which way things go. .

First, there is the deal itself. Initially Twitter did not want Musk to take them over. They explored a poison pill technique to try and block him, all the while the company’s employees were on the platflorm itself bemoaning Musk’s takeover attempt, and seeking ways they could derail it from the inside. Then they accepted his offer. But now given the lack of transprency about bots, and a purchase price that is nearly double what the stock currently trades at, he is walking away from the deal. And twitter….they are suing him to go through with the purchase. Hence, the meme Elon posted.

On the one hand, he gets the cash he wanted without tanking Tesla’s stock. Even if Musk loses the case, and gets fined $1bb dollar, what’s that to him? Especially if it get him what he really wanted, the remaining $7.5 billion.….if Josh Wolf’s theory is to be believed.

On the other hand perhaps this is simply Musk’s way of acheiving a lower price via the counter lawsuits. Typically, when a deal’s consumation become a legal matter (though not typically on

deals of this size), a setllement is reached which involves a lower puchase price.

Then there is the possibility that Musk, who is a free speech absolutist, and has been quite vocal in his criticism of Twitter, knows pulling out of the deal will tank the stock —

Which it did.

Shares fell 11% after Musk moved to terminate the deal, closing at $32.65 today.

I gotta say, I love the show BILLIONS. But I rarely believe, nor has it been my experience, that billionaire businessmen are anything like Bobby Axelrod. Or that how they do business in real life has any of the Shakespearean drama I see in the show. The writer-producer in me knows that those slick moves by Damian Lewis’s “Bobby Axelrod” are cleverly scripted and highly produced.

However, if Josh Wolf’s theory are correct then that would be some pretty clever Billions-style moves by Musk.

I guess we will have to wait for the next episode to find out.

Netflix. Cha-cha-cha-Changes

300 employees are let go at the streamer. More than expected.

Stock market bloodbath. Down 7oo. S&p enters bear TerritOry

Stocks added to losses after a major sell-off on Friday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 2.8%, nearly 900 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 3.9% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 4.7%.

There’s only one headline: the stock market is dumping today. The Dow is down more than 700. The S&P down more than 300. Which officially put it into bear market territory, with last week's record-high inflation leading to a spike in recession fears.

The driving factor in this is of course inflation. Compounded by continued, out of control, and unnecessary government spending, a foreign policy that has left Western Europe dependent on Putin‘s Russia for gas in the middle of rising energy costs which now sees the President of the United States (depending on the hour of the day) headed back to Saudi Arabia to grovel for cheaper oil after the the Biden administration foolishly decided to back Iran on the world stage in their unbelievably asinine attempt to restart the Iran nuclear deal. Which is superseded in stupidity only by the fact that Russia is the one negotiating this deal for the US. The same Russia currently bombing Ukraine.

You can’t make this stuff up.

---

But lest anyone think this is merely the stuff of fantasy or even hyperbole the stock market is there with its kick in the economics 101 teeth.

I guess that just have been one of the school programs cut in favor of drag queen dance hour or some such garbage. Joe Biden is much like Richard Dreyfuss’s character in the horse racing movie “Let It Ride,” the perennial loser who can’t even make the right call in a horse race. Or in life. What’s unbelievable is that Biden appears to have surrounded himself by people even less qualified and less capable (and more ideologically deranged) than him.

The result of which is entire generations of Americans have seen their retirement savings disappear, middle class American families, have watched their home mortgage rates creeping up while the cost of living skyrockets, and finally investors and American business are left with a little more to do than sit on the sidelines and nervously worry about the next upcoming Fed meeting which expects to see a half point interest rate hike

TOP GUN: MAVERICK - AMERICA’s NEED FOR SPEED…WITH A CONFIDENCE PROBLEM

What does the movie reveal about us as Americans, and what are the lessons we can take from it?

Like many other people I saw Top Gun: Maverick this opening weekend after a two year wait, the movie's release having been delayed due to Covid.  What usually happens with a movie whose theatrical release date is pushed back again and again, is waning interest and rising ridicule as it is assumed the movie must be terrible.  Top Gun: Maverick defied that convention, its delayed release only serving to build the anticipation and the movie delivered.  In fact, the movie exceeds expectations.  The movie delivered in every way that both Hollywood and audiences hopes for: It’s a good story,  it got people back into movie theaters after a long trending decline in theater attendance, and it’s a big hit!  Perhaps, most significantly it proved the enduring power of good movies with compelling characters and an entertaining story at its heart.  And of course it proved the enduring appeal of Tom Cruise who just might be the last great movie star.  Go see the movie right away.  In the theater with a bucket of popcorn — you will be glad you did.  However, this is not a review of Top Gun: Maverick. What I want to talk about is what Top Gun: Maverick and its moment in time says about our culture and our country in the 36 years since the original was released.  My entire life I've taken inspiration from stories. I find deeper meaning in the movies, books, theater, and television that I've loved.  So, what is the real story of Top Gun:Maverick, what does it tell us about ourselves, as people and as a country, and what are the lessons we can take from it?

SPOILER ALERT!!!  SPOILERS AHEAD

The new movie picks up with Pete “Maverick” Mitchell still played by the apparently ageless Tom Cruise.  Now a Captain instead of a Lieutenant, though his Naval career has not been particularly distinguished (except as a pilot).  For Maverick, the only seat his butt is shining is in the cockpit of a jet airplane.

His latest posting finds him flying an experimental supersonic jet out in the middle of the desert and still managing to tick off his superior commanders (the latest portrayed in this opening scene by a surly, Ed Harris, who is always terrific)  Maverick remains as agile on the ground as he is in a jet as he yet again dodges what seems like certain fate and the end of his flying career when word comes down from from his old friend Iceman…ahem, make that Admiral Iceman that Maverick has a new posting: As a Top Gun Instructor.

With the trademark Tom Cruise grin Maverick rides off into the sunset on a Kawasaki motorcycle back to Fighter Town, San Diego, returning to the place where we last left him.  One thing not in doubt, despite the fact that he's 30+ years older, and his career in the Navy has plateaued, is that Maverick does not have a confidence problem.

Which is good because his assignment involves training former Top Gun winners for a dangerous bombing run behind enemy lines in nameless ‘hostile country” (so as not to offend any potential global film audiences and thus undercut the profitability of the movie; certainly that’s one difference from the original.  Bye bye Taiwan bomber jacket patch).  The rub comes when Mavericks discovers that one of the Top Gun pilots he is to train is “Rooster,” the son of “Goose,” played by Anthony Edwards in the original  Maverick’s dead best friend and wingman. Rooster is played by Miles Teller in the sequel.

Not surprisingly, “Rooster” and “Maverick” have a strained (estranged) relationship as surrogate “father” and “son.”  Maverick is the only fighter fighter whose real-world combat experience includes the types of maneuvers and encounters that this dangerous mission calls, and it will be up to him to pick the team, which might mean picking “Rooster” for an extremely dangerous mission where he could be killed, or not picking him, thus further setting back Rooster’s career, and deepening the rift between them, maybe permanently.

We learn also that Rooster’s career was waylaid for a number of years by Maverick who had denied him a posting adding to the reasons why Rooster doesn’t like Maverick.  The question though is why Maverick did that?  Not surprisingly we learn this has some connection to Maverick’s unresolved feelings over Goose's death. He doesn't want to see the same thing happened to his son.  Plus, there’s an additional complication in the form of a deathbed promise Maverick made to Goose’s widow, played by Meg Ryan in the first movie, (deceased by the time this sequel picks up its storyline), a burden which Maverick heroically bares alone so that Rooster won’t blame his mom too.  But melodrama aside, what is at issue insofar as the mission is concerned is what can only be described as “Rooster’s confidence problem.”

We learn this early in the movie from a fellow cocky pilot— call sign “Hangman” played by Glenn Powell, who looks like he could be the son of Whip Hubley’s “Hollywood” from the original movie).  Hangman taunts Rooster that his problem is he always waits for everything to be just right, and because of that he often misses his chance to take his shot (cue Lynn Manuel Miranda’s “Hamilton”).  Apparently, Rooster has the flying down, but he can’t pull the trigger in the moment (which makes him an odd candidate for this particular mission that is literally a one-shot-at-the-target kinda deal, but put that aside a moment).

Interestingly, Hangman exhibits all the arrogant confidence and cockiness that Tom Cruise did in the original, (you can practically see Hangman wondering “who the best is?”  just like Maverick did.)  However, it seems as though in this movie that quality in a pilot is looked down upon.  Most of his teammates seem to think Hangman’s an asshole.  Whereas Tom Skerrit who was the head of Top Gun in the first movie, “liked that in his pilots,” the head of the school this time around, played by my pal, Jon Hamm, very clearly does not.  If it were up to him Maverick would already be grounded.  It appears as though the movie is criticizing the qualities that make Mav so good.  Is that what’s happening?  Is Top Gun: Maverick telling us that confidence is a bad quality?

Compare that to the original movie.  Back then, Maverick, like Hangman now, radiated confidence. So much so that he and Goose had a running bet over whether they could take women to bed in a single night.  In other words, his confidence was not merely in a plane, it was in every aspect of his life.  Maverick, nor any of the pilots in the original movie for that matter, lacked confidence. They practically oozed it.

Which is worth noting because this question of confidence that is at the heart of Top Gun: Maverick is to mind really a question about America.  It’s a reflection of where we are as a country right now:

Like Rooster, We have a confidence problem.

Consider Rooster: A millennial, unsure of himself in relation to his own past, his present abilities, or his future prospects.  Which is why he lacks the confidence to take the shot. Unlike the confidence problem that Maverick (briefly) suffered from which was directly linked to his flying and the death of his best friend, Rooster’s problem is not attributed to a single-factor, but is rather endemic to who he is.  It’s part of his character.  With Rooster we realize this lack of confidence problem is not limited to flying. We see it when Rooster plays pool against Hangman, and loses his cool after Hangman calls him out.  Not once but twice in the movie.  And not in the very alpha way Cruise did in the original who even in his outburst was still super sure of himself (“I’ll fire when I’m goddamn good and ready!” he tells Merlin.)  Rooster on the other hand is very beta.  It seems he lacks not only the confidence of pilots like Mav or Ice from the older generation had, but even the mission-required skill of  being being able to take the shot and hit the target at the precise right moment in time.

I’m reminded of a scene in the original movie where Whip Hubley’s character, Hollywood, leans in and tells Maverick that a move Mav made in a dogfight is the "gutsiest move he ever saw,” a sentiment we learn is shared by Mav’s instructor “Charlie” so much so she breaks her own rules and falls for one of her students.  In other words, what was prized among fighter pilots in the 80s at the height of the Cold War when we knew our enemy and the real stakes were clear to us all was confidence, bordering on arrogance, backed up by ice-cold skills, and the ability to trust one's gut.  These were the qualities in a man — in a hero — that saved the day.

Conversely, the qualities in a pilot praised today is a patient, considered, not arrogant, by the book flying — even if it doesn’t accomplish the mission.  Rather than cut him or the other pilots who can’t make the grade, (except for Hangman) Commander Jon Hamm scraps Mav’s mission plan in favor of one that won’t get the job done, or even lead to the pilot’s survival, for one that is easier and doable — even if it fails to achieve the mission’s main objective.  Better it seem to lower standards to meet the diminished confidence levels of pilots like “Rooster” who are very thoughtful pilots, but who ultimately fail when and where it counts the most.  This is what I think of as the Everyone Gets A Trophy-mentality which is now the norm in little league sports across America — we don’t keep score and we don’t declare winners.  Because it makes others feel bad.  The problem is where that mentality leads.  To lower confidence, less developed skills that have been tested in the real world, and ultimately to failure;  failure to accomplish the mission or to accomplish our goals.  But hey, as long as the pilots feel good about themselves.  Apparently, this is okay in Jon Hamm’s Navy.  If they crash and burn that’s not their fault after all, it’s the world’s.  (He must be following the General Mark Millie method of combat preparedness.)

While the goal in this sequel is supposedly victory, the qualities in fighter pilots prized by the Navy are ones that lead to confidence problems.  Rooster is quite literally unable to take the shot in the moment; he’s impotent.  “He’s all brain and not enough cock and balls,” to quote the grandfather in Todd Phillip’s “Road Trip.”  Coupled with the faceless enemy in this movie, I took this to mean that the biggest threat we face these days comes from within; it’s our own internal shortcomings.  As a country, as people, we have become like “Rooster.”  Despite all of our technological advancements and technical abilities piloting ourselves through a world where things move at the speed of an F-18, and the fact of the matter is we have a confidence problem.

Which brings me to what I love about Top Gun:Maverick, and one reason I cheered wildly in the final climactic scenes.  Because Tom Cruise’s “Maverick” is a direct repudiation of this mentality. 

Lack of confidence ain’t Maverick.  He does not think like this.  He believes in trusting yourself.  He believes in facing what is hard and doing what is needed to get the job done.  The movie through the actions of Tom Cruise’s Maverick, a relic of the Cold War, reminds of who we are as A People, the mindset we used to have, one far different from the weak (woke?) mentality we’ve exhibited lately as a country.

Thirty-six years ago as a country we were “Maverick.” A cocky bunch of flyboys with a winning grin unafraid to break the rules to win even if that meant coming out of a 4G negative dive with some bad ass MiGs so we could go to guns on them.

As Maverick’s heroism showed us in the original and does again in this kick ass sequel, what makes us who we are is we don’t lower our standards to make the mission easier.  We don’t cut and run from the fight.  We’re not afraid to face the danger to win the day.

When Maverick displays a lack of confidence in the first movie following Goose’s death, his instructor Tom Skerrit doesn’t pat his back and give him a time out.  He "keeps sending him up.”  To face his fears.  And overcome them.  Which is what Maverick does for the fighter pilots under his command this time.  He lets them be professional, and do the thing that they are there to do, they are trained to do — take the shot and win the fight.  And of course he leads by example.  Something sorely lacking in so many of our so-called “leaders” and cultural icons today.

This is why Top Gun: Maverick not only captures the best of the original movie but the character grow.  Back then the flying on screen was all done by real pilots with actors on stages in front of rear projection screens playing pretend.  Now Cruise can do this stuff for real.  And make no mistake, this movie’s flying scenes are nothing short of breathtaking, (and more than make up for whatever confidence problem the movie itself may have in terms of its nebulous antagonistic enemy threat). Like the actor playing him, Tom Cruise is also older and with the life experience that only time can bring.  Along the way his confidence in his own skills has clearly grown.  This time around there is a new aspect to how Maverick flies: responsibility.  He’s on the edge but not reckless.  He clearly is more thoughtful and concerned — for Rooster and for all the pilots, all of whom he wants to see safely return home.  Because they are the future.

This new dynamic to Maverick also shows up in his relationship with an ex-girlfriend named "Penny" played by Jennifer Connolly (which when you figure out the connection to the original movie is actually quite a kick).  He can still charm with the best of them but after Penny’s daughter sees Maverick climbing out of her mom’s bedroom window she tells him is not to break her mom’s heart this time.   That’s the “hard deck for this hop” and this time around Maverick isn’t going to be the one to break it.   It’s romance with the responsibility.

For both the older generation of movie fans who grew up on the original, and the next generation of movie-goers who come to the story through Top Gun: Maverick is a movie made to remind us of our potential.  Like all good heroic stories.  They  show us that we can still be great — maybe even better than we were — if we can just trust our gut, take the shot, and not miss when it counts most.  To do that will take confidence.  Top Gun: Maverick is a reminder that we still have the skills with lots to be confident about.

Supreme self-confidence has always been at the heart of our culture and how we see ourselves as Americans.  We live with the belief that what we stand for is right, that our values are true, and we will do whatever it takes, overcome whatever obstacle, face down whatever threat, external or internal, in order to win the day.  If we want to succeed as individuals, and as a country, we need to remember to celebrate the qualities in our heroes — and in ourselves — that enable us to reach those wild blue yonder heights.  That’s our true need for speed

Media money: Snapchat crashing. Stock Down 40%.

CEO Evan Spiegel’s warning sends shock across digital advertising as investors flee social media stocks

Courtesy of @lauren_feiner

• Snap CEO Evan Spiegel warned of slowing growth in a note to employees made public on Monday.

• His message sent a chill across the digital advertising industry.

• Analysts pointed to macroeconomic trends that could extend far beyond Snap.

That was all before Snap CEO Evan Spiegel warned late Monday of an environment that’s worsened since his company reported quarterly results in April, when guidance was already disappointing.

In telling employees and Wall Street that “the macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated when we issued our quarterly guidance last month,” Spiegel sent a shock across the digital ad industry and sent investors running for the exits.

Snap, which had previously projected second-quarter growth of 20% to 25%, lost an astounding 40% of its market cap on Monday. Beyond that, Pinterest plunged 23%, Facebook parent Meta dropped 8%, Google lost 6% and Twitter sank almost 4%.

DOW UP 618.34 (2%) to close at 31880.24

From the opening bell throughout most of the trading day, the S&P 500 was looking like it would reach bear market territory. At its low point in the day it was down 2.3% The benchmark is down 20% from its peak at the start of the year. However, in the final hour of the trading day a rally sent the index higher, with the S&P 500 ending up 0.57 point, or less than 0.1%, at 3901.36;

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 618.34 points on Monday, or 2%, to 31880.24

This slight rise ended eight straight weekly losses, their longest losing such streak since 1932, near the height of the Great Depression.

The reason for tracking this is because we are in a historic market transition. When stocks and the economy take a downturn it affects everything, but especially capital intensive businesses — like Hollywood.

Also, I am fond of the Peter Lynch quote from his book. “Invest In What You Know” :

“They [people] do more research on a microwave oven and buy based on a tip they heard on the bus. They buy into the potential of something. They hear a terrific story. I find when you hear that [story], you just have to black out. You have to think of a movie you went to recently because the stories are very appealing. The public is very careful with their money when they buy a dishwasher or a TV set, when they rent an apartment. When it comes to the stock market, for some reason they just don't do any work."

I love this quote because it mentions that people respond to stories, even when the decision they are making concerns money and finance. Also, it is a good reminder to keep up with studying things that might not seem central to the core of what those of us in Hollywood pr publishing do on the day-to-day, however, it has an impact. Sometimes in ways you don’t realize when it’s happening,

In 2008-09, we had the Great Recession. I was working at AMC at the time. We were coming off of two good shows with “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad” neither of which were hits out of the gate, but over time had built to become huge successes, critically and commercially (both shows were critical hits from the start, but not ratings hits by the standard at the time.). Then came the recession —

—and everything stopped.

True, there was a writer’s strike in 2008 as well which didn’t help, but both scenarios served to create a slowdown in production, if not an outright pause. Granted AMC was smaller than most networks so they were hardly an industry benchmark, but what happened at the network coming out of the 2009 Recession was interesting. AMC began to look for ways to cut their costs, At the same time there was a strong desire to multiply our production output (to avoid any gluts from shutdowns in the future). These two conditions led to AMC making “Rubicon” in partnership with Warner Horizon (the cable arm of Warner Bros TV), which was significant because the deal we struck at the time allowed for AMC to buy in for half of Warner’s deficit their cost (outside of the licensing fee they were getting for the series. *To note: AMC was not the first to do this; I first saw this put on paper at FX network, which later did their own version of an in-house studio, producing shows like the huge hit “Always Sunny in Philadelphia”. HBO was probably the first cable network to act as its own “studio entity”).

In the final “Rubicon” deal Warner retained ownership of the show in a largely traditional sense, but AMC had part of the profits from a piece of the show flow back to them. Suddenly AMC had a new revenue stream separate from their core business which was ad-supported television. They sold advertising. But now suddenly, at least on paper, they were a studio. Of sorts,

I am reminded of the scene in “Being John Malkovich” where the Cusack-controlled Malkovich tells his agent played by Carlos Jacott that he wants tostop acting and become a puppeteer. To which the agent, without skipping a beat, responds, “pooof! you’re a puppeteer.”

Sometimes things can change just that fast.

“Rubicon” was the toe-in-the-water-test that AMC used to determine whether they could produce a show entirely on their own.

Which we did.

You may have heard of it…

The Walking Dead.

That show-deal later became AMC’s first wholly owned and produced series (and later the subject of a $2billion dollar lawsuit, settled at roughly $200 million last I checked, but that’s another story). The point here is that the decision by AMC to make the Walking Dead was contingent on our ownership of the show, which was driven by the rising costs of production fueled by a crippling recession (which made everything additionally expensive) and the fear of another glut in programming.

As Netflix sheds subscribers, and finds its stock price back in five-year-ago territory, and with stiff competition from the likes of Disney, Amazon, and HBO Max, with inflation rising, the economy teetering, and monkey pox looming (just kidding…but only a little), uncertainty about the future is high, and change can come swiftly. In ways we never expect. Like say, ads on a streaming platform famous for making binge television a thing. We meet the new boss, same as the old boss I suppose.

Whether Netflix ultimately rolls out an ad-supported version, or whether or not Amazon Prime’s “Lord of the Rings” is a giant hit or a tremendous flop, or whether Disney becomes the subscriber king, or there is some other bellwether, it is a good bet that we are about to see more seismic shifts in the entertainment industry.

Be on the look out for opportunity.

Stock market flirting with bear terrItory as recession is deemed near certainty

MEDIA MONEY: INFLATION STILL A PROBLEM AS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.

CPI Increased .3% again that beat expectations. Almost all the forecast were for either .4 or .5. This is one of the lowest increases in CPI in recent months but obviously still an increase. To get a number like 8.3% only slightly lower than last month’s unbelievably high inflation numbers, is not exactly something to write home about.

Which means settle in for some more 50 BP rate hikes.

Looking a little closer at the numbers the real problem is this slight drop in the number is largely due to the lower gas prices we got last month. To quote a popular movie, “information that would have been useful to me yesterday. That’s because gas prices (as an impact on inflation) is based on where prices were a few weeks ago when gas prices dipped slightly. Since then gas prices have risen again and now sit at their highest price. This means inflation has likely not peaked as some people have been speculating.

Why is this relevant?

Because when everything costs more due to inflation (because the purchasing power of each dollar doesn’t go as far) it means that businesses cannot invest in growth the way they might have otherwise.

This means less hiring. It means less expansion. And from a very Hollywood perspective, it means every film and tv production is now that much more expensive.

To quote the Dude, “that’s a bummer, man.”

For some additional context, along with falling (now rising) gas prices, air travel appears to be the driver of the bad 8.3% inflation number. Last summer was the original Covid peak and then we actually started seeing CPI go down briefly but now when we look at the number as a breakdown we see that are crazy increases in the cost of things.

(All of the numbers are weighted by the Fed according to the impact on the overall CPI.)

Food index increased .9% which is technically outside of core CPI but that’s a significant increase for families. It’s worth reminding everyone reading this that CPI or Core consumer prices, excludes volatile food and energy items. Of course, consumers don't eat or drive based on “core” prices, and food prices are up 9.4% over the last year.

Major grocery store groups increase in to see increase in this increase of the month

The price of eggs up 10.3% month over month. Margarine up 7.1%. Those are some high numbers for goods outside of core CPI.

Men’s and boys apparel down slightly. Women’s apparel down slightly. Toddler apparel down 2.74%. Sewing machines and fabric supplies down 4.6% Guess that’s good for the costume departments. In travel: Hotels are up 3.4%. Car and truck rental 2.4%. Airline fares went up 21.9% in a month! That’s a huge increase! I wonder if that’s due to the riding gas prices? I know airlines tend to lock in future prices on jet fuel futures months out, but I’m guessing that is part of the impact. Along with a return to travel by people around the world, and a desire to get out and go places after two years of lockdowns. The prices of air travel is starting to reflect some of that demand. That’s going to cost each out-of-town production (which most are) a pretty penny to the budget bottom line.

Perhaps had California’s Governor Gavin Newsom done more to increase the tax credits in his home state of California at the beginning of the pandemic it would have resulted in more shows and movies being filmed here in California. Which, given the recent call by the WGA to not have productions in states that have laws that the unions/guilds apparently disagree with (I must have missed the consensus votes), also create complications, considering over half the states in the union likely have laws that the Hollywood guilds and some of their more vocal members disagree with. But again, this is just one more example of the shortsightedness of the rhetoric that results in so many of these flawed policies which have a direct impact on so many of California’s core industries, and the people who work in them.

Polling data that inflation and rising prices is what people are most concerned with. Not a bad time for some Hollywood escapism. But looking at the Oscars this past year, you have to wonder if Hollywood is still in the escapism business.

Had there been a stronger focus on the fiscal integrity of the state, along with support for one of America’s most important industries based here in Cali from our Governor and elected leaders, then perhaps we’d be better situated than we are now on all fronts. Bringing film and television production closer to home which would’ve maybe made it easier to keep productions going at full steam during the pandemic, instead of having to endure on-and-off shut-downs (one or two at least prompted by mistaken PCR test results, according to one studio head and one producer I spoke with). But I guess all that would be asking too much of Newsom. Instead, all that good gov stimulus cash (which is what largely kept California from defaulting on its liabilities) went to all manner of frivolous expenditures led by Newsom’s wildly progressive policies, leaving one of California’s major homegrown industries out in the cold.

So, now what we’re looking at is yet another year of what amounts to an added “tax” on every single production that the past two years came in the form of the additional Covid safety measure costs, and now in the form of skyrocketing inflation.

Looking at these numbers I wonder about the old adage that show business is recession-proof.

For a while, at the start of the pandemic with the spike in streaming numbers and the increase in our spending on home entertainment, I thought it looked like that might still be the case albeit in a different form. Instead of going to the movies for escapism, people we’re staying home watching Netflix and chilling. However, since the release of Netflix’s 200,000 subscriber loss and the tanking of their share price (their earnings call was yesterday; more to come on that), I’m not so sure that we can still say that Hollywood is recession-proof.

But back to the rising inflation — what will it mean for an industry looking to recover from the past two years of Covid? Well, for one thing, it means that on top of the Covid “tax” on productions last two years in the form of safety measures, amounting to roughly a 20-25% increase in budgets, plus the dollars falling purchasing power due to rising inflation, this poses yet another challenge for Hollywood.

MEDIA MONEY - DOW PLUNGE CONTINUES. AMC ENTERTAINMENT BEATS EXPECTATIONS

The DOW DROPS 654 points. Down 1.99%

NASDAQ FALLS another 4.3%

S&P DOWN 3.2%

BITCOIN OFF 54% From Its Highs

The worst market sell off in years just keeps on trucking. The S&P closed below 4000 for the first time since March 2021.

AMC Entertainment Q1 Revene Beat Expectations.

Despite the bloodbath in the rest of the market, there was a bright spot for those of us in Hollywood and the theatical distribution end of the business, and that is that AMC Entertainment Q1 Revene Beat Expectations.

AMC saw movie fans return to theaters in droves this past quarter despite the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which were not enough to keep people out of theaters beating the Street’s revenue expectations, and narrowing the theater chain’s loses. This is in keeping with an overall rise in entertainment, travel, and other leisure industries. Google searches for related terms including movie times, plane ticket prices, and vacation rentals are all up suggesting that people are ready to return to their customary past times and leisure activities, despite the poor economic news and sinking stock market.

The movie theater chain posted a net loss of $337.4 million or $.65 a share compared with a loss of $566.9 million or $1.42 a share for the same period a year ago. Revenue rose to $785.7 million up from $148.3 million beating the Street’s expectation of $743.4 million. This led to EBITDA (adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of a loss of $61.7 million from a loss of $294.7 million in the same quarter last year. According to the CEO Adam Aron, this represents “AMC’s strongest first quarter in two full years.” 60 million people went to movies in Q4 last year, which was a 50% increase. That trend appears to be continuing in 2022.

It is also a validation of CEO Adam Aron’s comments back in Q4 2021 calling claims that the theater business was dead in the era of streaming, “a load of cow dung.”

The fact that the theater chain was able to beat expectations with Omicron fears persisting, and frankly not that many great movies, is a good sign. It is also a validation of CEO Adam Aron’s comments back in Q4 2021 calling claims that the theater business was dead in the era of streaming, “a load of cow dung.” People have underestimated the theater business for a long time. The speculation two years ago was that AMC was supposed to file for bankruptcy back in 2020 -- that didn’t happen. Granted, the theater chain did get a significant boost from a surge in retain investors (spurred by chatter on reddit and other online forums) which drove the stock price up and allowed for AMC to refinance some of its debt and secure additional infusions of capital.

The movie theater business is one of those industries whose demise has been predicted at various points throughout history. Radio was supposed to kill it. Then TV. Then home video, first with the VCR, then the DVD, and most recently streaming video, all of which were supposed death knells for the industry. Despite predictions, that bell has yet to be rung. Which, as someone for whom some of my favorite memories were made in movie theaters this is welcome news. There’s still nothing better than the experience of seeing a blockbuster movie in a darkened theater with other people.

Here’s hoping the good times continue for the movie theater business, and Hollywood in general. This is also a good bellwether, not only for cinephiles like me, but of the public’s mindset generally, who clearly feel that the pandemic is for all intents and purposes over. Which in the spirit of Hollywood movies is the happy ending we’ve all been hoping for.

Media Money - Dow Tumbles 1100

Ouch.

Nothing like bad monetary policy and bad governance to send stocks into a nose dive.

Lots of blood in the streets.

We are heading into the sixth terrible month for the market.

The average retail stock portfolio is down 23%.

What does this mean for people going back to work? There is still a deficit between available jobs and people looking.
what about the older generation?. The baby boomers are the largest generation to hit the retirement age in American history…Will that still happen if they’re savings are eviscerated by a market where the mentality is now not how much can I make, but how can I lose less?

On top of which inflation does not appear to have peaked

Like I said, ouch.

Media Money - Dow drops 800 points

Yesterday the Dow fell 809 points or 2.4%.

The S&P fell 2.8% or 129.2 points.

The Nasdaq fell 4%

All three major indices are on track to be lose at least 4% this month with Nasdaq being down 12% in April.

Soooo…inflation is not transitory and is a real problem.

There seems to be little doubt the economy will slip into a recession. On top of which there are now some very real stagflation concerns.

I’m not even going to wager any predictions other than to say this is what happens when you flood the American economy with trillions of dollars in (unnecessary) stimulus spending.

The interest rates are rising and will continue to. And finally, the administration is talking about raising taxes.

It is hard to contemplate just how bad the economy has been managed the last year and a half. What's shocking is there is no signal from the administration that they have any plan to solve this problem.

Come on, man!

Oh boy.

Now to the specifics of the media biz, I wanted to follow up yesterday’s post with some additional information today on YouTube, which we got a look under the hood at as part of the larger Google earnings call and filings.

Google earnings had a lot in there, but our focus today is on how the company’s financials may position YouTube to become the dominant player in the war for eyeballs among not only social media platforms, but possibly also among streamers. Especially as the lines between them begin to blur.

According to the filing YouTube accounts for over 50% of ad-supported stream time.

YouTube shorts had 30 billion views daily

Wow.

Revenue growth at GOOG is up 44% year over year

What's really significant about this is it shows just how large Google’s margins are very much like in face behind high margin business -- the higher the margin the more insulated you are from economic downturns which given the current state of the economy is probably a good thing for those companies that have them.

Google also re-purchased $52 billion of shares in the past year. That shows you just how much extra cash there is on hand. Even though the market didn’t reward this move in the short term it should be a boon to shareholders over the long term.

From the media industry perspective, this positions YouTube to be able to spend more money on their platform developing and improving features like shorts (clearly aimed directly at tiktok audience). This at a time when the industry leader in streaming entertainment, Netflix, is talk about cutting costs.

MEDIA MONEY: TWITTER, NETFLIX, and CNN+…OH MY!

News:

Obviously the big news is that Elon musk is buying Twitter. He paid $54.20 a share for a valuation $44 billion. That means Musk is paying more than 3x the average eps for the company.

(At the time of this writing Twitter is trading at 51.69)

This means that Musk is paying 75.2x 2022. eps. Thats compared with industry average of about 20x earnings.

Amazon trades at 46 times earnings

Microsoft trades at 26 times earnings

Meta trades at 35x earnings

That means Musk is paying more than roughly 3x the average eps for the company. So, what are Musk’s intentions for Twitter?

Twitter

What we know about Musk’s plan so far is that he intends to take the company private because he claims that is the only way that he can make the changes to return the company to profitability and make it competitive within its industry.

Of course Jack Dorsey 2% stake will see him net a $980mm payday thanks to Elon. Perhaps that’s the reason for all the “light and consciousness.”

He talked about making the twitter algorithm open source as a way of showing how the AI works. This not only offers much needed transparency in this company, but if the algorithm can be shown to work more effectively then that is a boon for all algo-driven industries and businesses.

Twitter founder and former CEO, Jack Dorsey had this to say:

“In principle, I don’t believe anyone should own or run Twitter. It wants to be a public good at a protocol level, not a company. Solving for the problem of it being a company however, Elon is the singular solution I trust. I trust his mission to extend the light of consciousness.”

Of course Jack Dorsey 2% stake will see him net a $980mm payday thanks to Elon. Perhaps that’s the reason for all the “light and consciousness.”

Never minding that silliness, what Dorsey muses is worth pondering. Is Twitter “a public good?” And, “not a company”? If so, it begs the question: is twitter a utility? Twitter punches well above its weight in terms of its influence in the public square and public discourse relative to its overall valuation, profitability, compared to other tech companies in the sector. In that case, dows Twitter have obligations beyond its bottom line? If so, is there a way for an individual like Musk to unlock that? It used to be that the news divisions of major media companies were not required to turn a profit. The understanding was that this ensured an independent, strong fourth estate, which is — or was — seen as integral to maintaining a strong democracy. Public discourse and the freedom of speech of course is even more integral, and even more central to the foundations of this country and its core principles. So, as a platform is Twitter responsible to living up to those ideals or is its only obligation to its investors and its bottom line? The answer to those questions and many others will determine what Twitter looks like going forward, its place in our society as a the “digital town square,” as well as its profitability over the long term.

One thing that is overwhelmingly clear is that most people are against censorship. However there is a contingent of Twitter’s more left-leaning employees and users who claim they will be leaving Twitter (over 99% of piolitical donations from employees were to Democrats; that’s beyond group think. That’s cultish). If they do, this could impact the company’s ability to evolve... but I seriouly doubt most will. Anymore than people moved to Canada after the 2004 election after George Bush won re-election. As for the ones that do….good riddance. They are the ones who have run this company into the ground.Whatever this means for the company’s future or its bottom line, this is a win for democracy. All the politicians claiming this is dangerous for democracy are ridiculous.

Almost as ridiculous as the idea that the current CEO, Prag Agarwal, is set to receive $42mm if terminated by Musk. Talk about a golden parachute. I thought we did away with those? Apparently not. Apparently failure in corporate America is still rewarded. Ah well, the rhetoric sounded good.

One thing that is overwhelmingly clear is that most people are against censorship.

In related news, President Trump’s new social media platform, Truth Social, was down 12% in market trading.

CNN+

Speaking of going down, the failed experiment that was CNN+ has come to an ignomouus end. The streaming service CNN+ closes after being on the market for a month. You have to look to Quibi for that spectacular of a failure that fast. A $300 million dollar investment down the drain. I suspect David Zaslav took a whole six seconds to make the decision to shutter that turd. Despite all the supposed overlaps and synergies, it still seems as if Hollywood is flailing in the tech world. And Big Tech appears to be struggling to unlock value in Hollywood. Going forward, what does this mean for traditional media companies like Warner Bros-Discovery?

Another business asking those same kinds of questions these days is the reigning streaming king, Netflix the stock dumped 35% on Monday.

Netflix

It is important to remember that last Octoner the company was at its highest share price. That may be because the market is in a bubble and we are now seeing a correction or it may be that Netflix was overvalued given the trends of competition within the industry, specifically among other streamers, as well as rising costs Given all that, I would expect that their fourth quarter earnings will not likely to be much better.

Netflix spent $17 billion on programming

So where is all this headed?

Netflix has already said it intends to cut expenses. Okay. Makes sense. Where? How much? Does that mean production? Programming? Netflix spent $17 billion on programming in 2022. Even for someone whohas worked in the industry for a couple of decades now, that number is a bit mind-boggling. Still, production and programming is the lifeblood of streamers, of Hollywood. That said, WB-Discovery just anounced thatt the TNT and TBS divisions are out of the originl scripted business. Obviously, that’s not in the cards for Netflix, but as Hastings indicated, they will cut waste. Writer and producer Deals not earning out. Probably going away. Overpaid, egomaniacal, useless (marketing) executives…probably going away. And good riddance. At this point its good money after bad. They’re not getting it done. Has there been a Netflix show in the past 5 years thats really captured the zeitgeist? Squid Game. That’s about it. And they didn’t know what they had there, so its still a fluke. Let’s see how Season 2 fares.

The bigger question is will there be a change in management? Ted Sarandos is the top dog when it comes to content at the company. Will he see a change in his day-to-day duties? Or will blame fall to one of his other lieutenants? Bela Bajaria is the Global Head of Content for the past two years, having succeeded Cindy Holland who was the chief programming executive since Netflix’s initial foray into original programming. However given the average development and production cycle, we won’t really begin to see Bajaria’s slate until some time the end of this year. But, this is Hollywood kids and when it comes to heads rolling, all bets are off.

Other changes coming to Netflix….Ads.

Yup. You read that right. The original ad-free, built-for-binging, streaming service, is claiming that advertising may be the only way to unlock the future value of the company. That is a major reversal from Netflix’s core strategy since it began mass producing original programming. Will users accept an ad-supported version? How will this affect other streamers in the industry. After all, it is largely based on the success of Netflix’s streaming model that led most trad media companies to launch their own versions from Disney+ to HBOMax to Peacock. They all got in on the action, and now the industry leader is potentially changing course. Is this the death of the binge model?

Finally, if Netflix’s share price keeps falling will they become a takeover target? Whatever happens, it will have implications for the entire industry.

YouTube

Speaking of ad-supported, a platforms, let’s take a moment to talk YouTube. The Alphabet owned video sharing platform seems much better poised to exploit advertising than even vanguard streaming companies like Netflix. Why? Well, the past several years have seen YouTube grow into a robust platform with tons of programming offerings, primarily in the form of user-generated content. Users are used to the ad-supported format. They’ve accepted it and it is lready factored into how they consume content on the platfom. This has led to higher CPM rates for popular content creators, which in turn has made advertisers feel more comfortable spending their ad dollars on the site. Additionally, YouTube, likem Netflix also offers a premium paid version of the service that is ad-free. One of the major costs to the company is the $17billion they’ve spent on programming. It’s hard to correlate the ROI for any one show since Netflix has always been based on a subscription model. Regardless, that is a lot of cash out the door. Now compare that to YouTube that shoulders none of those costs as the content on their platform is 99.99% user generated. Consumer-generated content versus hollywood scripted series and movies on a cost-comparison basis strictly in terms of production expenses gives YouTube a competitve advantage over its industry peers. Now that Netflix (and Disney) are stumbling does that mean we will see the emergence of YouTube as the dominant streaming platform?. Also, because of the ad-supported nature of the platform any increasing costs (of production) do not have to be passed on to the customer. The same cannot be said of streamers like Netflix which is raising its monthly fees, passing its rising costs onto its subscribers. (Netflix and Disney+ have both raised subscription fees).

Tech stock prices (as of this writing):

Twitter 51.83

Meta 185.78

Snap 29. 77

Pinterest 19. 95

Netflix 208.91

Amazon 2,910.00

Google alphabet 2454.56

Apple 162.20

Earnings calls today:

Microsoft

Alphabet (Google)

As we head into the market open, the Dow futures is at 33, 768.00 trending down 197.00.

Expermineting with TikTok Ads

April 7 - 7:30am: Experimenting with tiktok advertising for book sales and other e-commerce. It’s a brave new world the level of data these social media platforms provide. Not just tik tok, but of course Facebook and Amazon
It is very interesting from a marketing and sales perspective (all of which is done in-house) to run split-tests on different ad copy or different videos that cater to the same audience and watch how they respond differently to each. Tweaking ads has become like editing novels and scripts. Looking for the clearest way to tell the story.

5:55pm: In just one day I’ve seen my view count on videos jump by 600%, and I’ve seen site traffic to my website also spike. In terms of conversion to sales, I have to wait for Amazon to update its sales info. I will keep you posted, but off to a promising start.